Major Tremors
For the first time since 1920, voters in New York’s 9th Congressional District elected a Republican to Congress today. Once counting has ended, it looks like the GOP nominee will win 53-47%. Pretty impressive considering registered Democrats number almost 196,000 while there are only 62,000 Republicans and 85,000 independents . This is Anthony Weiner’s district – he averaged 70+% when he had a challenger. It was Chuck Schumer’s district before that.
Since 1857, the GOP has held the seat in its various incarnations a total of 9 out of the past 154 years. They won’t hold it for long, though. This makes the decision about the two seats New York legislators must eliminate due to the 2010 census a lot easier.
Ambiance 
chickelit said,
September 14, 2011 at 1:24 am
If you factor out Weiner, it’s harder to imagine this happening. I wasn’t there to see what effect he had on the electorate. From a distance he seemed arrogant. Perhaps his constituency wanted to “send a lesson.” People do that from time to time.
You seem to be reading something more into this. Maybe the stuff up on Drudge right now…the stuff about Jewish voters and the DNC’s attitude towards Israel: “Revenge of the Jews”? If that’s true, then there could be greater, statewide or national implications. Why shouldn’t there be? The DNC’s turnabout against Israel in the past few years has been clearly demarcated, IMO.
kngfish said,
September 14, 2011 at 2:03 am
The Power of Twitter Compels You!
As they say….Erections Have Consequences!
wj said,
September 14, 2011 at 1:19 pm
I saw one note http://www.cityhallnews.com/2011/09/anti-gay-marriage-forces-converge-on-ny-9/ that pointed out several prominent Orthodox rabbis wrote to their followers voting for Weprin would be forbidden. Because his vote for legislation to legalize gay marriage was chillul Hashem. And note that the district has a very large Jewish population.
Which suggests that, while the economy may have been a major factor, other factors may also have been very important. In an upset like this, it is possible that several factors were required to achieve an unexpected result.
Melinda said,
September 15, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Weiner was well-liked in his district and by New Yorkers generally.
This election probably had more to do with the Democrats and Israel, although no US administration, Democrat or Republican, would deliberately hurt Israel. Even Nixon was pro-Israel, and he hated Jews.
The district includes several Orthodox Jewish communities who can be counted on to turn out reliably in droves when they perceive a threat to Israel. There’s always more voter turnout when you want to make sure the other SOB doesn’t win. :)
mockturtle said,
September 15, 2011 at 4:50 pm
Not just Jews but evangelical Christians rally to the support of Israel. :-) My Kuwaiti boyfriend back in college was an extraordinarily kind and thoughtful young man but he and his Arab friends all agreed that Israel has NO right to exist and they would laugh scornfully at my protestations to the contrary. This is true of our Arab friends and former colleagues today, as well. IMHO, reducing our support for Israel on the half-baked premise that it will buy peace in the Middle East is simply naive. And dangerous.
karen said,
September 16, 2011 at 7:42 pm
Way buzzed right now on Crown& Ginger- typing slowly and calmly on this keyboard and– as numb as i’ve been w/the passing(i was going to erase that and writer dearth–) of my brother(in-law)- this numbness is a relief that i am surprised i never resorted to before this.
An amazing comment on Althouse i liked:
“Quayle said…
“And there isn’t a person alive that isn’t animated by faith – by envisioning an unseen world and then working to bring it into existence.
Even UW is doing that – they are envisioning a world that does not yet exist, where there is equal scholastic accomplishment distributed evenly within races.
Bernie Madoff envisioned a world, and worked to accomplish it.
So the issue isn’t faith in the unseen. The issue is what other unseen things have you left out of your visions.
Do you envision a world where others in the world are real and have real feelings and all are treated equally.
Or do you envision and world where you and your chosen clan always come out on top and the others don’t exist.”
That’s a very honest and compelling comment, no?
It’s also funny how many words are underlined in mad, squiggly lines because the computer just cannot recognize them. Kinda interesting…
karen said,
September 16, 2011 at 8:10 pm
… dearth, for sure and forever.
karen said,
September 16, 2011 at 8:18 pm
From Gateway Pundit:
“Barack Obama told supporters last night that his latest new-fangled stimulus plan will create 1.9 million jobs.
USA Today reported:
President Obama has attached a big number to his jobs bill: 1.9 million.
At a private fundraiser last night, Obama said his proposal would create 1.9 millions jobs, while reducing the 9.1% unemployment rate by a percentage point; he also said it would add two percentage points to the gross domestic product.
Assuming it’s passed by Congress, that is.
“The Republicans in the House, their natural instinct right now is not to engage in the kind of cooperation that we’d like to see,” Obama said in promoting his American Jobs Act.”
karen said,
September 16, 2011 at 8:23 pm
Last time, post related- Gateway via “Brooklyn Paper”:
“Weprin called Turner to concede the special election and congratulate his opponent on Wednesday morning. The victor acknowledged the President’s role in the election, according to Turner.
“He said ‘The election wasn’t about you or me. It was beyond both of us.’ ” Weprin recalled.
Calls to the Turner campaign were not returned on Wednesday, but
during his victory speech, Turner said his win proved that voters have “had it” with the President’s “irresponsible fiscal policies” and his “treatment of Israel.”
Icepick said,
September 17, 2011 at 8:17 pm
Karen, the question for the President and his comments about his “jobs” package would be this: If will do all you say it will, why didn’t you propose it sooner? There isn’t a good answer to that question.
The secondary question is this: Given your projections for what would happen if your stimulus package were passed in February of 2009, why should we believe this bill will do anything other than lead to the loss of millions of more jobs and an even higher UE rate than we have now? There isnt a good answer to that one either.
karen said,
September 18, 2011 at 3:46 pm
“There isn’t a good answer to that one either.”
Nope.
Spud said,
September 19, 2011 at 5:15 am
“Turner said his win proved that voters have “had it” with the President’s “irresponsible fiscal policies”
Karen, I’ve asked this question to Tea party supporters. What is it republicans are going to different than they did before when they had the power less than three years ago, do you know? And can you remember why it was the republicans took a shellacking in 2008? Republicans are acting like the country went from Clinton straight to Obama, or that Bush left this country in great shape. The vote in New York means nothing to me at this time. The election is light years away when it comes to all that can happen between now and then. I still say if the republicans put up a Tea Partier in the vein of Sharron Angle, Joe Miller, Christine O’Donnell and Carl Palidino, they will lose. The country may be center right, but it sure as hell is not far right.
karen said,
September 19, 2011 at 10:16 am
“And can you remember why it was the republicans took a shellacking in 2008?”
Uh, Liberal ~Hope & Change~?
How’s that going for ya?
Never heard of:
Sharron Angle
Joe Miller
Carl Palidino
I think Christine O’Donnell is- what- a Governor somewhere? I have heard of her. Are these people running for President in 2012? Oh, Palidino is in NY, isn’t he?
I have heard of Solyndra& Gunwalker, though. Have you heard of these two brilliantly executed Administrative examples of wisdom and common sense?
I’m a West gal, spudly. Have you heard of Allen West?
wj said,
September 19, 2011 at 10:17 am
“There isn’t a good answer to that one either.”
Actually, there is a good answer, just not an acceptable answer.
The good answer is that that the information on how bad the jobs problem is, and how it is not recovering as part of the overall recovery, has taken a while to develop. Economic statistics are always revised, sometimes sevceral times, after they first come out. And any of them can be revised either up or down. So whatever the “headline” reports say, it is actually a bad idea to jump into policy changes before the revisions are available to tell you what is really happening.
But nobody wants to hear about how we don’t instantly know what is happening. So the good answer to “Why didn’t you propose this before?” is “We were waiting to see what was really happening.” But the only acceptable answer is to have done something the instant that initial (but known to be inaccurate) information came out. Even though that has a history of getting policy wrong.
wj said,
September 19, 2011 at 10:21 am
karen, Christine O’Donnell and Sharon Angle were Republican Senate candidates in 2010, in Nevada and Deleware as I recall. Both were Tea Partry candidates. And they both lost races that should have been easy Republican victories.
Being embraced by the Tea Party may be a big plus in winning the Republican nomination. But the evidence so far does not suggest that it is helpful in winning a general election. (Of course, that could change in the future. But what we have to work from is data from the past.)
karen said,
September 19, 2011 at 10:57 am
But(but,but…) wasn’t the 1st Stimulus supposed to be a shoo-in for job creation? Except that, it wasn’t? So, now that we have feedback on the Stimulus, we are going to beg for another Stimulus? I think of the Stimulus as a policy for job creation– am i over simplifying(again?)
How about ~giving~ states w/disaster damage $$$$ so that they can stimulate job creation while repairing damage productively?
karen said,
September 19, 2011 at 11:06 am
Thank you, wj.
Icepick said,
September 19, 2011 at 6:23 pm
wj, that comments about not knowiing how bad things were, or were going to be, just don’t hold up. First, everyone back in 2008 was calling this a catastrophe, and a generational event (as in “once in a …”). Further, it was very clear AT THAT TIME that this was not a business cycle driven recession, but a financial crisis recession. Even though THE text-book on that matter hadn’t yet been completed, it was already known such events were much nastier and longer-lasting than a business cycle recession. It was already clear at that time that a tremendous amount of wealth destruction had already occurred for a great many households and that more was on the way. Job loses in the millions were already occuring by early in 2009. And the only people claiiming that things were going to be better were the same jackasses who had not seen the mess coming before hand.
And even if they hadn’t realized how bad it was in early 2009, where the fuck wqere these assholes by late 2009? Early 2010? The middle of 2010? Oh, in the middle of 2010 they were touting “Recovery Summer!” Then the shit hit the fan and the Fed rode in again with another bout of inflation – ahem – quantitative easing to make certain Wall Street got theirs. By late 2010 things were already looking creaky unless one ONLY looked at the headline UE numbers. Anyone digging in would have know that the numbers were not showing anything good.
And through all of this the jobs situation remained critical. In fact, even after the start of the official recovery (and the Administration was really goddamned quick to proclaim the end of the recession back when they got a positive GDP number in 2009) and for some time thereafter we continued to lose jobs. Not only has this been a jobless recovery, jobs have been lost well into the recovery. (There was a bump from the census which needs to be ignored.) The nation had lost something like two million jobs since the “recovery” began.
I have to go do something else now, but the idea that it took time to know how bad the economy and the jobs situation were is complete bull shit. They knew then because they knew to start extending the UEC benefit BACK IN 2007 and they kept extending it as the rolls of people on UEC and extended UEC kept expanding. And knowing how many qualify they can make good estimates on how many don’t. They had real-time numbers on the crisis (including IRS receipts), and to claim otherwise is just plain stupid.
Icepick said,
September 20, 2011 at 12:53 am
I’d like to return to that last point. The federal government has excellent real-time data on what’s happening in the economy by looking at tax receipts, and can make real-time determinations on unemployment by looking at aggragated UEC numbers. Tossing in the UEC extensions this time around means they really have good info on the depth of the employment problem.
There are some difficulties with all of this, as not all taxes are reported immediately. But enough are, especially for the common American worker, that the Federal government can have a very good idea what is happening in essentaily real time. FICA tax numbers alone can establish this.
This has implications.
Consider that people willing to dig can come up with their own estimates of how many people have exhausted ALL UEC benefits. The government MUST know this number with more precision, as they have the data. So why isn’t this number discussed in concrete terms, with actual numbers and with concrete policy options debated?
This is one example among many.
I repeat, the federal government has excellent data on the state of the economy RIGHT NOW. Even if they can’t tell you the GDP number at this moment, they can certainly assess the employment situation with a great deal of precision. If they’re not using it, that implies that they’re either incompetent, don’t care, or both.
So
holds true.
Spud said,
September 20, 2011 at 5:35 am
Karen said, “Uh, Liberal ~Hope & Change~?
How’s that going for ya?”
Very good. These last two years have been the best for the dairy industry, record high prices paid to farmers for their milk. It’s about time, huh?
I’m a West gal, spudly. Have you heard of Allen West?
I have. Wasn’t him who said representative Keith Ellison a practicing Muslim, represents the “antithesis of the principles upon which this country was established”?
Spud said,
September 20, 2011 at 5:47 am
Karen, You haven’t answered what it is republicans are going to different than just a short time ago when they have had power. I hope you don’t run your dairy farm the way Bush ran the country which was spend money and put it on a credit card. At least republican president Eisenhower instituted a war tax when he took the country to war in Korea. Bush went to war in Iraq and gave a tax cut. How responsible is that? Now the bill is due. Did you know the country was shedding 700,000 jobs a month when Obama took over? At least that hemorrhage has stopped.
karen said,
September 20, 2011 at 8:17 am
Spud, button down the hatches- farming always goes in cycles and i have to say… the conventional prices came way the hell up, but ours held steady, right? NOW we are headed for severe feed shortages, the weather plays so much a part in our lives and i think prices for folks in the store will go really high(& how much of those costs do farmers ever see?). Grain will be sky high- fuel… everything.
If i get this right, Pelosi just gave the gavel over to Boehner just this past cycle- or am i missing something. The power lies there, doesn’t it- where bills are passed. Depending on the gridlock? And, veto power of the Prez.
I’m no Icepick, but i imagine that policies will be reworked where constraints have been put on industries that prevent cost productive output. Because of footprint. Prices of fuel are outrageous- we could be in much better shape if allowed to develop US energies– and i don’t mean 400ft wind towers on top of Lowell Mt, either. That’s going to pay for diesel fuel- how?
Did you know Ideal went bankrupt– nice, eh?
Ice, just saw some kid named Austan Goolie- or something– economist? Very vague sounding, very unimpressive and like- has the inner ear of our tone-deaf President.
We are so safe, can’t you just feel the protective arms of our caring gov’t squeezing the breath out of you?
karen said,
September 20, 2011 at 8:56 am
Obama: “This is not class warfare… It’s math.”
He vows to veto any deficit plan that doesn’t have new taxes.
This is a Headline/link @Althouse. The comments section is full of the answers to the question that you ask– how it would be done differently by more Conservative folk, spud.
Wonder if the above will link on it’s own?
Icepick said,
September 20, 2011 at 9:59 am
At least republican president Eisenhower instituted a war tax when he took the country to war in Korea.
EPIC FAIL.
Eisenhower didn’t get us into to war in Korea, Truman did. Eisenhower ran on ending that war, and managed to do so in fairly short order.
(At least the violence stopped – the war technically still goes on, with N Korea versus the entire world. So much for UN effectiveness. And we’re surprised that UN sanctions didn’t work against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq or the Taliban’s Afghanistan? I’m not sure how much credit should go to the Truman Admin for the negotiations that ended the violence.)
Would you care to try again, double or nothing? Christ, if you don’t actually know what happened, just shut the fuck up.
Icepick said,
September 20, 2011 at 10:02 am
These last two years have been the best for the dairy industry, record high prices paid to farmers for their milk.
Yes, thank The Bernanke for driving up inflation – but only for prices, not wages. Your windfall comes at the expense of everyone else, and is another example of rent-seeking. Congratualations on going the ruling class against everyone else, asshole.
karen said,
September 20, 2011 at 12:25 pm
No wonder spud picks on me, ice.
You like to draw blood– eeewwwww.
Spud said,
September 20, 2011 at 2:36 pm
“I’m no Icepick”.
I hope not, unless you see arrogance as a virtue. I have thick skin, his insults don’t bother me. Karen, he even thinks “Your windfall comes at the expense of everyone else, and is another example of rent-seeking. And then add his “Congratulations on going the ruling class against everyone else” And he thinks I’m a dumb fuck? The point he missed was Eisenhower kept in place a Korean War tax to pay for the war. If your farm was in debt up to your neck, would you want Alan to milk less cows (less revenue)? I would have to cut both spending and increase revenue to get back in good financial shape if I was over burden with debt.
“We are so safe, can’t you just feel the protective arms of our caring gov’t squeezing the breath out of you?”
Government’s only ok to republicans when they have control of it, then government is just fine.
karen said,
September 20, 2011 at 5:12 pm
Spud,a s much as i really valued W– to the point of being called names by… everyone around this area- except my neighbours next door(heh)- i know he really didn’t do the ~Republican~ job of keeping gov’t at bay. He expanded and then he got that whole TARP thing– the two wars, for some reason- weren’t even a problem w/me.
I don’t have to defend ice– i just have very thin skin, still- after reading so much on the web, i wince at personal barbs. That’s me and my protective nature, i guess. Ice, though- never minces words- and i learn a lot, even if my ability to obtain the info seems so hard, these days. Stress, grief… they are a bitter combo-cocktail to swallow. That’s probably why the Crown went down pretty smooth, the other night.
Anyway, the last two yrs of our experience have been horrible. I’m so glad we FINALLY got paid for those cows.
karen said,
September 20, 2011 at 6:11 pm
From Gateway Pundit:
~200 Murders~
“Obama’s failed Fast and Furious program is linked to 200 murders in Mexico. And the program is linked to at least 11 crimes here in the United States including the murder of US border agent Brian Terry.”
Also:
“Barack Obama’s gleaming example of green technology – Solyndra – filed for bankruptcy this month. The solar panel manufacturer squandered $535 million of stimulus money in a little over a year.
Why Solyndra?
Top Obama bundler George Kaiser made multiple visits to the White House in the months before the company was granted a $535 million loan from the government.”
karen said,
September 20, 2011 at 6:25 pm
More… “No, of course not, and he’s so far off the mark that even AP feels obligated to note this……………
On average, the wealthiest people in America pay a lot more taxes than the middle class or the poor, according to private and government data. They pay at a higher rate, and as a group, they contribute a much larger share of the overall taxes collected by the federal government.
The 10% of households with the highest incomes pay more than half of all federal taxes. They pay more than 70% of federal income taxes, according to the Congressional Budget Office.”
Icepick said,
September 20, 2011 at 7:20 pm
The point he missed was Eisenhower kept in place a Korean War tax to pay for the war.
No, dumbass, that isn’t what you stated. Your point was that Eisenhower (unlike modern republicans) created taxes to pay for his wars. But he didn’t start the war, and he didn’t create the tax. FAIL.
By your logic Obama should get just as much blame as Bush for the unfunded wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, because he has not only kept and extended the Bush tax cuts, he has instituted a bunch of his own, and he hasn’t ended the wars either. Plus he’s got us into three more that he isn’t paying for. But I don’t see you making that point.
As for your windfall – guess what, it is coming at the expense of the rest of us. Are salaries/wages going up for the vast majority of people? No, they’re falling. A great big chunk of us can’t even find a job. So the increase in your prices means there’s less the rest of us can buy of anything else. And I’m not complaining about karen, I’m complaining about you. You made it clear that you are happy about how things are going because you are getting yours. In case you haven’t noticed, assswipe, the country is well and truly fucked, and Obama and the Democrats have done nothing but make things worse. But fuck everyone else so long as you get yours, right?
And it isn’t arrogance – it is knowledge of the facts, and knowledge that you don’t know them, and outrage that I have some idiot ignoramous telling me what’s what when he doesn’t even know who was President when the Korean War started. That’s a pretty basic fact.
Spud said,
September 20, 2011 at 9:00 pm
“No, dumbass, that isn’t what you stated. Your point was that Eisenhower (unlike modern republicans) created taxes to pay for his wars. But he didn’t start the war, and he didn’t create the tax. FAIL.”
No shit dumbass. My point was, THEY DIDN’T GIVE OUT TAX CUTS DURING A WAR!!
“By your logic Obama should get just as much blame as Bush for the unfunded wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, because he has not only kept and extended the Bush tax cuts, he has instituted a bunch of his own, and he hasn’t ended the wars either. Plus he’s got us into three more that he isn’t paying for. But I don’t see you making that point.”
Now you know why I don’t approve of him.
“As for your windfall – guess what, it is coming at the expense of the rest of us”.
Guess what? You don’t know what you’re talking about. The conventional milk price is FALLING. Did you know that the milk price paid to farmers in 2009 was less than what they were paid in 1979? Who do you think got the windfall Mr. know it all?
“Are salaries/wages going up for the vast majority of people?”
Hell no. Lets bust unions and lower wages more.
“So the increase in your prices means there’s less the rest of us can buy of anything else. And I’m not complaining about karen,”
Why not? The increase in her prices means there’s less for you.
“I’m complaining about you. You made it clear that you are happy about how things are going because you are getting yours.”
I made it clear that when she asked me said ~Hope & Change~?How’s that going for ya?” I said, things are going well.
“In case you haven’t noticed, assswipe, the country is well and truly fucked, and Obama and the Democrats have done nothing but make things worse”
Well asswidpe it is truly fucked, and the country will be even more fucked if the Tea party takes total control
“But fuck everyone else so long as you get yours, right?”
If that was true, I’d vote republican.
“And it isn’t arrogance –”
Not only is it arrogance, it’s condescending.
wj said,
September 21, 2011 at 10:49 am
Spud, do you think you could ease up on the insults? It really is possible to have an argument, even a vigorous argument, without them. (And most times, people here sincerely are trying to explain why they believe what they do. Even the ones who disagree with me!)
Thanks.
karen said,
September 21, 2011 at 12:59 pm
Uh, as literal as i am–
did you have your tongue in your cheek when you said that, wj?
Spud said,
September 21, 2011 at 2:05 pm
wj, I appreciate your concern. I don’t like insulting people, it’s not my nature. I’d like to be able to turn the other cheek when I’m called an asshole, dumbass, and assswipe, but it’s not always easy to do.
Icepick said,
September 24, 2011 at 12:07 am
So knowledge of the actual facts is arrogant and/or condescending, while ignorance of same is … ? I’m guessing humble and contrite? Blissful? Some other virtue/state-of-mind?
Face it, you got the facts wrong, Trying to backtrack now doesn’t change that. Not to mention the condescending nature of the phrasing “At least … when ….” You were quite proud to flaunt your knowledge of facts at that point. Too bad they weren’t.
You try to back into a new point later with the phrasing “The point [Icepick] missed was Eisenhower kept in place a Korean War tax to pay for the war.” Exactly how is someone supposed to know what you meant when you laid an incorrect groundwork of facts from which to draw conclusions? If I said “The Earth is the center of the Universe” you would not necessarily be able to infer that I meant “The Sun will rise in the East tomorrow morning.” (Because, you know, the Ptolemaic Model had the Sun rising in the East too!) Perhaps I meant to make some odd comment about the variable size of the Moon in my belief system instead. (There is some difference in the logical constructions between my example and yours, but I’m too tired/fried to work out a better example. So sorry. See, humble & contrite!*)
You compounded that by blowing off the misery of millions because you’re getting yours. Now that is a picture of arrogance that I can’t match, not even on my best days. But you are getting all in a huff because you got called on being (a) ignorant and (b) a jackass. (Or got called an ignorant jackass, take your pick.) Tough titty, sailor. Try to get your facts straight, make your actual point clearly and concisely, and draw proper conclusions.
* Now THAT was arrogance, baby,with a snotty attitude to boot!
Spud said,
September 27, 2011 at 5:33 pm
“You compounded that by blowing off the misery of millions because you’re getting yours.”
Now add dishonesty to arrogant and condescending.